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Darren,
What does the Post Office have to say? They estimate 4 - 6 weeks delivery, it's now been 13 weeks, and they cannot prove it was delivered? I would *like* to believe you could file a claim with them for non-delivery. That may be too optimistic
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sadly there is no recourse on uninsured parcels with the USPS, foreign or domestic. currently with hightened customs procedures, both inbound and outbound, I have found that 4 - 6 weeks may mean 3 months at least.
As shipper, you retain the insurance receipt for all "numbered insured" items and you can file a claim without having to involve the addressee.
Sadly this info does no good now, but PainPal should realize the time involved with attempting to find an international package with no tracking number. I think refunding the buyer was

as he will probably receive the items eventually, and there will be no record of delivery without insurance.

Never send anything of value without insurance payable to yourself. (learned the hard way)