Re: I need help to authenticate a LS6 Convertible
Been watching too much Donnie Brasco latey..lol..I actually just sold all of my cars within the last year, as I personaly feel most of the cars, especially the original cars are way over priced and fraud, whether it is bogus paperwork or restamped parts is too rampant. I also do not think the price trend will contine and I wanted to re-allocate the money to more stable investments. The topic is interesting to me and I thought in light of some of the post concerning the value of a clone or what used to be called a hot rod...a car that is nothing like it started interesting..
Something I'm not sure if many have thought about is the correlation between short term rates, real estate, and the current boom. It is certainly interesting how prior to the drastic historic annomaly in short term rate drop of 2001-2005, the musclecar market was soft...When realestate and musclecars took off is when the govt regualted a recession with short term rates (ie: the Fed Fund rate). Now that rates are up, realestate is self correcting to a normal market...some might say soft or certainly slow in most areas, what will happen with musclecars.
While prices among hardcore collectors might stay up,I'm really not sure how many "hardcore" collectors there are. I would bet there aren't as many as most will think. As most economist will tell you, the main reason the economy isn't in better shape, which isn't to say it is in bad shape now, is directly related to the war. Once the consumer confidence truly returns and stocks make rallys and are generating decent returns, how many guys will bail on musclecars for more traditional investments. Given that there are more musclecars "known" about today and the acessiblity is greater as a result of the internet today vs. the first "boom" I would suggest that once the cars reach a certain plateau they will drop in value. Look at it this way..there are only a certain amount of people able or inclined to pay 100k (or even 50k)for a car that gets driven only in nice weather. Once these people buy the cars and own what they want the remainder (the cars that is) have no where to go, so the result is the prices drop as demand decreases. Right now musclecars are hot, but at one point so were Beannie Babies..it still boils down to price drives demand..the higher the price the lower the demand hence the price eventually corrects to what the market will bear and when looking at a commodity the price usually drops quickly and below where most expect...We aren't talking about cars that as a general rule only 1000 were made...So if we are saying that a LS6 of which there were 4475 made and even 20% survive (much higher I would bet) we are discussing almost 900 cars. So if the current price is 100k then for that to remain there has to be a majority that will and more importantly CAN pay that much. That is 447 people...are there really that many people out there??? Not sure...
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